An article in the Arizona Republic by Catherine Reagor reviewed Arizona’s incoming migration statistics and found that most new residents to Phoenix come from California, Texas, Illinois and Washington. You can read her article here.
This article analyzes the likely trend in jury verdicts we might see as a consequence of current migration patterns in the United States.
In general, it’s fair to say that Arizona is typically considered a conservative jurisdiction as far as jury awards go and the ability of a defendant to obtain a defense verdict when appropriate. Binary nomenclature is not important but what is important to understand is that it appears to be generally understood that the same injury and same liability in an Arizona case or a New York case would tend to yield a higher likelihood of a plaintiff verdict and a higher damage award. Arizona has not historically had the amount or type of large judgments awarded on relatively minor injuries as other jurisdictions.
When I moved here in 2008, I realized right away that Arizona was still very much the wild west. Living in the desert southwest requires a certain level of self-reliance. Arizona’s history is packed with rough and tumble men and women prospering in the desert. From Native Americans to early cowboys and settlers to the extraordinary expansive brought on by the highway system and commercial flight in the post-WWII era, Arizonans had to look out for themselves, watch where they step, pay attention to their surroundings, etc. The stakes were high – one snakebite or failure to drink enough liquid on a regular basis can be quickly fatal.
It may be Arizonans’ engrained sense self-reliance that has historically given some Arizona juries the ability to withhold runaway verdicts in cases where liability is admitted but damages are overblown or find for defendants where appropriate. The question is whether we are in for a shift towards more plaintiff’s verdicts and higher damages awards as a consequence of Arizona’s changing population with the influx of residents from states where high verdicts are more the norm. Assuming the answer is yes, insurers and companies can expect higher liability exposure in the future as people from states like California, Illinois and Washington continue to migrate here.
Ms. Reagor’s article starts by saying nearly half of the searchers on Redfin were from Seattle, Washington. If that’s true (because, VPNs) then we’ve potentially got people from Seattle thinking very hard about moving to Phoenix. If Phoenix becomes populated with people from Seattle, it stands to reason that Arizona’s juries will shift to behave more like Seattle juries. While I don’t have any statistics, my conversations with insurers and corporate clients in other states tells me that, on average, injured plaintiffs do better in Seattle than Phoenix.
But as of now, most new residents do not come from Washington; not yet. The article continues that most people moving to Arizona actually come from California and that has been the trend for some time. Again, if true then it should not be surprising if Arizona juries start awarding more plaintiffs, more money. The second most people apparently migrate from Texas and the third most come from Illinois. Without looking up verdicts specifically and relying solely on anecdotal stories from people in insurance and commerce, it’s my understanding that California (where I am licensed), Texas and Illinois all have cases where a jury awards large sums of money for relatively minor injuries and/or where liability is not at all clear.
Business owners take heed – as with all things, an influx of customers brings the opportunity for claims. Every customer you touch, is potentially a customer you hurt. Given expected continued migration to our awesome state, I think that businesses and insurers can expect more lawsuits resulting in plaintiff verdicts with higher damages awards even in spurious cases or where the injuries are relatively minor. It might be wise to up your excess layer or examine your risk profile to see where you might need additional shoring up (whether with insurance, contracts, operations, etc.).